Electrical vehicles are getting increasingly popular by the day. EVs’ population in the world doubled in 2016 to 2 million from 1 million a year earlier. There are 12 countries where market share of EVs is already more than 1%, with Norway leading at 27%.
Clean air requirements and GHG mandates have made EV a reality. EVs have a high purchase cost, but is energy efficient. Due to cheaper electricity than petrol and diesel and higher efficiency, operating costs of EVs are much lesser. Thus, life cycle cost of EVs is lower than conventional fuel vehicles.
EV is a superior technology offering smokeless and noiseless operation. It is an altogether a new system. Only the body chassis and wheels are the same, otherwise everything is different .I.C. Engine, quite a complicated and noisy system, is replaced by electric motor. Electric motor could be under bonnet or increasingly electric motors are installed on the wheels eliminating the energy lost in power transmission. Regenerative brakes are installed which store energy of braking. No oiling is required which is a major irritant and no filters either. Highly simplified system is there. That is why, Tesla and BYD, the two major EV builder companies, have no earlier background as car manufacturers. Traditional car manufacturers are quite jittery and nervous about it.
High upfront cost is a major impediment in EV sales, especially, in poor developing countries. There are varying driving factors in individual countries. In northern Europe, where there is heavy fuel taxation, EV may be more attractive than in the US where fuel costs are probably the lowest among advanced countries. China has become a leading EV country both in terms of market size and the capacity to produce efficient and cost-effective EVs. In fact, in case of electrical buses, it is number one, both as a buyer and as a producer.
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Comparison of different bus technologies
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Segment Diesel Buses CNG Hybrid Electric Pure Electric Bus
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Volvo 840016 Tata STARBUS Tata STARBUS Tata Starbus BYD K920
Model (AC) SLF 4417 LE CNG 1818 Hybrid19 (AC)
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(AC/non-AC) (AC/non-AC) (AC/non-AC)
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Seats 32 44 18 32 31
Length 12.3 m 12 m 12 m 12 m 12 m
Width 2.5 m 2.5 m 2.55 m 2.55 m 2.55 m
Height 3.2 m 3.2 m 3.35 m 3.35 m 3.49 m
Gross weight 16,200 kg 16,200 kg 16,000 kg 16,200 kg 18,500 kg
Costs (INR) 88 lakhs 33 lakhs 30 lakhs 1,2-1.4 crores 2-3 crores
Fuel efficiency 2.2 km/L 3.5 km/L 2-3 km/kg 2,2-4km/kg 1.5 kWh/km
Fuel cost INR 23/km INR 15/km INR 13-19/km INR10-17/km INR 10/km
Range (km) 484 560 260-390 286-520 249
Fuel tank size 220L 160L 720L 720L –
Charging time – – – – 3-6 h
Max power 290 BHP 177 BHP 230 BHP 230 BHP engine 44 kW battery 180 kW
Max torque 1,200 Nm 685 Nm 687 Nm 678 Nm 700 Nm
Battery type- – – – Li-ion batteries Li-ion Iron (300 kWh)
Emission standard EURO III BS III BS IV EURO III Zero tail pipe emission
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We have provided a comparative table giving economics of EV vs conventional vehicles under conditions in India. A Volvo diesel bus with 31-passenger capacity and air-conditioner covers 2.3km distance in one liter of diesel. And an EV bus of the same capacity consumes 1.5 kWh per km. Assuming Diesel cost of 0.8 USD per Liter and Electricity cost of 10 cents per kWh, Diesel bus cost per km would be 0.347 USD and of EV Bus would be 0.15 USD. It means that fuel cost of Diesel bus is more than double or EV electricity cost is less than 50%. Proterra claims a fuel economy advantage of 6 times in one of their presentation which sounds slightly exaggerated. Volvo Diesel CAPEX is IRs 8.8 million while EV KYD9 costs 25 million INR, almost three times.
EV prices are coming down fast. Its main cost component is battery. Li-Ion battery costs have come down from about 1000 USD/kWh a few years ago to 145 USD/kWh in 2017. Battery costs will come down further. An electric car has typically a battery of 40 kWh, which loads a cool 6000 USD in car price of say 25000 USD. In an electric bus, battery capacity is about 300 kWh, which would cost 45000 USD alone vis-à-vis total price of electric bus of, say, 350,000 USD.
Solar PV costs have come down along with increasing efficiency and flexibility. One could consider integrating solar electricity generation project in the terminal nodes or parking stations. An electricity generation cost of Rs per 5.0 per kWh may make an EV to be quite attractive. A 50% overhead cost for charging system may be attractive also. These numbers have, however, to be verified under a feasibility study.
After China, India has made great plans for introducing electrical buses. The main driving factor being urban pollution. In India, 100,000 buses of all types are sold in a year on an average. A target of 10% would make annual sales of 10,000 electrical buses per year. In policy terms, India has targeted not to produce fossil fuel buses beyond 2025. Several EV production plants have already been built. Of special interest to us is Suzuki’s major investment activity in EV production in India. Another important company is BYD joint venture with a local Indian company.
In Pakistan, the driving factor is almost the same as that of India – urban pollution. Metro buses have been introduced with a view to providing clean and convenient transport. There are about 10 major cities where Metro system would be installed. EV buses may be an ideal solution to Metros and the satellite feeding buses that are required for connecting Metro with different areas. A market of 200 electrical buses can be foreseen in a year. It is unlikely that local production would be justified at this volume. On the other hand, one could foresee some activity towards conversion of existing conventional buses into electrical buses. In terms of electric cars, one can see hybrid imported reconditioned cars plying between various routes in Pakistan. Owners who have been interviewed feel quite good with their EV possessions.
Electric buses normally are battery-based that require frequent charging. One charging cycle takes about four hours, although battery exchange automats are being studied at bus stops. Also, there is another approach to fast charging ultra capacitors which can be charged in minutes. However, capacitors can store only limited amount of charge, say, 10 kWh, which would require frequent but fast charging. Whatever be the system, charging infrastructure would be required.
Transport sector has grown in Pakistan at a very fast speed which can be measured by a 23% year-on-year increase in petrol consumption, which can be both an asset and a liability. More than 2 million motorcycles are registered every year, and car production has crossed the 250,000 mark. It is being predicted that this number would double in less than a decade. Mobility creates jobs and markets. However, if petrol consumption increases at this rate, import bill of petrol alone may shoot up to 20 billion USD in a decade’s time which clearly may not be sustainable in a number of respects. In this scenario, a role and market for EVs appears to be on the horizon. Electricity crisis is over and if EVs are available at the same prices as conventional vehicles, an EV market may emerge. The policy question would be to produce EVs locally or to import. If one goes by the experience and market development of computers or solar panels in Pakistan, it appears that it may be too early to enter into local production, as local production almost always discourages market development by creation of monopolies and protection. This is a highly controversial issue which may have to be discussed seriously. Market of motor cycles of more than 2 million is a respectable. However, one would not be sure about the car market size.
Initially, electric buses may be introduced to public sector which can organize the required infrastructure. Private sector can follow up later. A financing line and some incentives such as exemption in import duties may also be required. Also, one would suggest local R&D in this important segment of upcoming technology. All this requires, an EV policy which should pull together the various strands of the issue through stakeholder consultations. Although, we have given pessimistic comments with respect to the local production prospects, policy consultations may bring this issue in as well. A pilot project may be launched in the first instance .The largest electrical Bus manufacturer in the world is BYD of China. Thus, the CPEC framework could be utilized for launching the system under which technical and financial assistance could be obtained.
(The writer has been Member Energy Planning Commission until recently)
Published in Business Recorder, February 25th, 2018.
