For cooking and heating needs, biogas and biomass solutions are there which can be installed for household clusters. This is being done already, commercially and as well as by NGOs such as NRSP. However, its pace should be enhanced by launching appropriate financial packages by the provincial governments.
It should be possible to achieve 100 percent of rural electrification of 30,000 villages in a decade. Assuming an average of 20KW per village, 600MW of electrical capacity would be required which may cost Rs 2.5 billion or 250 million dollars per year. This is not a big sum and all of it not necessary to come from government coffer. A substantial part of it should come from Discos. For example, India has recently launched a similar programme to provide electricity to 30,000 households by March 2019 under a budget of 2.5 billion dollars. It is a rather ambitious programme in terms of time schedule. Perhaps, more interesting is Bangladesh’s SHS programme under which 4.1 million households have been provided solar electricity, which is 12% of the population. Bangladesh is installing 70,000 SHS systems every month which it wants to increase to 300,000 per month to achieve Access for All target by 2020.
Thus, the challenge is neither technical nor technological or even financial. The challenge is purely willingness and planning and designing of a feasible project and setting the targets to achieve. A target of 500 villages per Disco (small Discos to have less and large may have more depending on the size and area needs) of rural electrical installations may not be a very tall order. A score of model projects could be initially designed and implemented which could be assisted by international organisations such as the USAID, the UN, ADB, the WB and other similar institutions. Federal PSDP and Planning Commission also can have a role in its initial launching and funding as electricity being the federal subject. Provincial governments, which already have some limited programmes, may have to increase their appropriations in this respect. State Bank of Pakistan has a concessional finance credit line which could also be utilised and expanded with some modification. If stakeholders see results and a viable plan, resources come in.
Perhaps a programme management unit may have to be formed to look after the strategic issues of implementation. Discos which may have the basic responsibility may package EPC projects of 10MW each. In addition, a number of models may also be developed to cover the variety of situations that may exist. This will help in packaging as proposed in the aforementioned. Without taking similar measures, such long range and widespread programmes become victim of lethargy and decay.
For the purpose of efficiency, it is proposed that Discos to be the executing agencies responsible. For installation of facilities, Discos may be useful or efficient but for retailing and bill collection purposes, Discos may not be able to do a good job. There will be many types of electricity retailing dealing even in small change. Micro and small enterprises may have to be involved for which business models may have to be developed.
There is a darker side to the benign solar programmes. It has been observed that a large number of such programmes launched in Asia and Africa have suffered from pilferage and lack of sustainability. The first lesson is that the solutions should be low technology requiring least maintenance. However, low technology option is only feasible in the case of rooftop. Although, rooftop solar meets this requirement, batteries are often an issue. Secondly, pilferage is more where there is something free. Free or subsidies should be on common purpose community-based facilities. Individual home installations should be given to financially eligible households with reasonable financial participation. Subsidies should be given to the organisations with a requirement to pass on these subsidies in the form of lower tariff and service charges to consumers. Under one or more of the aforementioned strategies, it would be possible to fast track the rural electrification rather energisation.
Subsidies would be required which may be channelled in many forms; concessional credit, cross subsidy of regulator equivalent and other loss subsidies. Subsidies may also be provided to union councils for community-based electrical systems or facilities. However, subsidy relying systems are generally not sustainable or are restricted. Subsidies should be limited to the diseconomies of remote areas and of poor regions. Fortunately, solar does not require subsidies itself. It is the cheapest and easiest resource as of today. A public oversight, regulatory and grievance redressal system would be required along with a bill collection mechanism. Union councils may have to be involved. Provincial governments and their energy departments may have to devise a policy framework.
A related issue is of induction of solar energy into the general electric grid of Pakistan. Although, some progress is made in this respect, more is required. Most of the studies and electricity plans that were made are of a time when solar was not competitive. Consequently, solar does not appear in these studies as a major and mainstream resource. Today, solar is the cheapest resource. It is high time that such programmes and plans are revised and a solar package of 10,000MW is included for the coming 10 years. Rural electrification may be included in it.
All of this requires a lot of policy and planning advance work, if a large, target-driven programme has to be implemented to provide electricity for all in a decade’s time. However, this may not be discouraging. It can be done. However, inadequate and premature policy may restrict development rather than promotion. Elections are close-by and this subject should find adequate inclusion in the manifestoes of political parties. Surely, this would attract a majority of voters. Apart from votes, it is a major social responsibility of political parties and governments. It would have major impact on literacy, health and economic development.
(Concluded)
(The writer is former member energy Planning Commission)
Published in Business Recorder, March 18th, 2018.
