However, some increase in small and medium category tariff will have to be, willy-nilly, done to cover the costs. In Bangladesh, minimum monthly charge is PkRs 1380-1500 per MMBtu for smaller single and two burner consumers.
Average gas tariff in this category has been estimated at PkRs. 1364 per MMBtu. Bangladesh prices in the lower tariff category are 455-124% higher. There are social and political limitations in applying high increases in gas tariff of this category.
However, gas bills amounts for lower consumption categories aren’t very high as compared to the electricity bill. A small consumer gets an electricity bill of Rs.5000/-as compared to Rs 500-700 for the gas.
Increase in gas tariff in small category may not be as hurting as it may be in case of electricity. The number of slabs could be reduced to three or four. Minimum tariff in residential sector may be increased to Rs 400.0 per MMBtu. Middle tariff could be around Rs 1000.0 per MMBtu. Upper-middle tariff could be Rs 2000.0 per MMBtu and high-end at Rs 4500.
Fertilizer sector tariff
Fertilizer sector tariff in Pakistan is Rs. 512 per MMBtu. In Bangladesh, fertilizer sector gas tariff is PkRs. 1212 per MMBtu, which is 240 % higher than in Pakistan.
Strangely, a top fertilizer manufacturer is charged only 0.7 USD (Rs 200 only per MMBtu). It has a very old plant under a contract but till when can it be extended? In India, fertilizer sector is not subsidized through gas sector; they have a separate fertilizer subsidy system.
There is a case for doubling the existing fertilizer gas tariff. We provide the following details of the implications of this issue and approaches thereof.
Apart from life-line consumers and other low income groups’ consumer tariff issue, there is a major source of anomaly in gas tariff which arises from very low gas tariff traditionally awarded to the fertilizer plants.
Subsidy to fertilizers is a desirable issue, but the question is from where it should be financed? Should it be financed from the agricultural budget or from gas consumers? Cross-subsidy to fertilizer plants has been causing circular debt and on consume gas tariff.
Gas subsidies are not liked by IFIs and other international bodies, while agricultural subsidies have been common in Europe and are understood. Thus transferring the cross subsidies from the gas sector to agriculture would be a desirable step.
There are anomalies in fertilizer retail prices as well. Fertilizer plants get gas at varying tariff but the effective market price of fertilizer bags to farmers is almost the same. Intermediaries siphon off the price anomalies.
Intermediaries are the same hoarding class which manipulates prices of other commodities like Sugar, Flour, and Cooking Oil, etc. In case of sugar, producers are involved in the booty but in the case of fertilizers, it is not known who the partners in the booty are?
Market price of Urea available to farmers is Rs 3800 per bag as against the prescribed prices of Rs 3210 per bag by FFC/Fatima, Rs 3600.0 by EFFERT, Rs 3411 per bag by RLNG-based fertilizer plants and Rs 3600.0 by FFBL. It has been estimated that intermediaries pocket varying amounts of Rs 200-700 per bag .
There are questions about the price setting by the fertilizer plants under a varying gas price. Reportedly, Ministry of Production exercises some kind of control on fertilizer pricing. The process, however, is not transparent as it is in the case of other regulators like Ogra and Nepra.
In the background of these anomalies, it has been reported that GoP is considering removal of gas price variations among various fertilizer plants and wants to bring it equal to the industrial gas tariff. It would be a welcome step.
This need not increase the fertilizer prices if, as mentioned earlier, the gas price subsidy is passed on to the agricultural sector and fertilizer price is regulated by Ogra. There may be other approaches of adjusting and passing on farmers subsidies under other heads and let the fertilizer price increase suitably.
Industrial and commercial tariff
Industrial growth in Pakistan has been stagnating. Exports are also linked with industrial gas tariff. Bangladesh industrial gas tariff is 189% higher than Pakistan. It appears that an increase of 47% (average Ogra determined increase) in industrial gas tariff should be affordable by the industrial sector as well as commercial sector. There is a scope for a comparable increase in commercial tariff as well.
Power sector
It may be desirable to keep tariff for power sector a bit lower than the uniform rate increase formula. Under uniform increase of 47%, gas tariff for power sector would come out to be Rs.1544 from the existing rate of Rs.1050.
A 10-15% discount may be considered if surplus from other areas are available. Captive power tariff should be 20% higher in order to discourage Captives. It is more of a tax evasion tool than a technical requirement in many cases.
Reforms in gas tariff procedure
There is a need to reform the current procedure for tariff award, which results in consuming time and delays in tariff award and Government acceptance and announcement of the same. WACOG may have to be adopted, although its final legal acceptance appears to be doubtful or in some confusion. With adoption of WACOG, it may be appropriate to adopt power sector approach and methodology.
Instead of DISCOs to be the buyers, an intermediary virtual organisation (IVOG) like CPPA-G may have to be created. IVOG will be virtually buying from gas producers and LNG importers and calculate a monthly WACOG.
OGRA can do this calculation instead of IVOG.OGRA will compute gas tariff a la NEPRA for Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly periods and do the adjustments. More simplification can be done on NEPRA procedures. Distribution cost may be announced yearly as a lump-sum rate. UFG can be added as per case and CAPEX allowances permitted separately.
Conclusion
Solar, Wind and Hydrogen appears to be the future. It appears that increased Thar coal utilisation (gasification) may not be possible in the immediate future as is evident from the minutes of JCC (China-Pakistan) meeting recently reported in the press. Solar and Wind would require balancing support from gas-fired power plants, which are under-utilized currently due to pricing and supplies reasons. We would continue to need gas for various sectors for at-least two or more decades.
The gas scenario appears to be bleak in the context of little new find of local gas. Political problems in Balochistan have added to this situation. Also, circular debt problem have affected the liquidity of our gas exploration companies like PPL and OGDC. Improvement in existing policies like Tight Gas policies is being done. It is hoped that some improvement comes by. LNG prices are high and spot market prices are unstable. We need gas for industrialisation and exports.
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Comparative Gas-LPG Prices: India, Bangladesh and Pakistan
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India Bangladesh Pakistan
Gas-Residential 5060 1364 1100-3100
LPG-Residential 5353 6797 5436
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Natural Gas Tariff
Pakistan 15th Feb 2023 vs. Bangladesh-Pk.Rs/MMBtu
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Pakistan Bangladesh Bngl/Pakis %
Residential-0.25 hm3 200
0.6 hm3 300 1364 455
1 hm3 400 1364 341
1.5 hm3 600 1364 227
2 hm3 800 1364 171
3 hm3 1100 1364 124
4 hm3 2000 1364 68
4 hm3+ 3100 1364 44
Commercial 1650 2310 140
Gen>industries 1200 2273 189
Captive Power 1200 2273 189
Export Oriented Industrie 1100
CNG 1805
Cement 1500
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Fertilizer
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General Off Take 510 1212 238
Dawood Hercules 510
Pak China 510
Hazara Phosphate 510
Engro 210
Fauji Fertilizer Bin qasim 510
IPP, WAPDA and Others 1050 1061
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Source: Petroleum Division, Business Standard Dacca
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There are two pipeline projects, IPP (Iran-Pakistan Pipeline) and TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline. Pipeline gas should be cheaper than LNG, although no details have been made public in this respect. Prices may have to be renegotiated as per new market conditions. IPP is almost ready on Iranian side. Pakistan is constrained due to international sanctions on Iran. In the context of improving regional middle-eastern environment, it may not be out of place to expect the powers that be to allow IPP project. It is hoped that TAPI also comes on stream in near future.
(Concluded)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2023
